Zero-information predictions for 2013

The embarrassing failure of experts to predict the future is well known and has been exhaustively cataloged by writers such as Nassim Taleb and Nate Silver. It often seems like the more someone knows about a subject, the worse they are at predicting what will happen in that area. In this spirit, I bring you seven predictions for the coming year, based on an absolute minimal amount of knowledge. Combined, I’ve spent less than one hour studying these topics, with the exception of bubbles in general. Here they are, we’ll see how well this exercise in ignorance holds up.

Prediction: The EU crisis will not be solved, more good money will be thrown after bad.
Source of prediction: The last three years. Also, bankers (for now) still rule the world.

Prediction: Bubbles will begin to burst. It could be the Higher Education Bubble, the Regulatory Complexity Bubble, the Government Money Printing (aka Fiat Currency) Bubble, or the closely related Global Debt Bubble.
Source of prediction: In Western, developed nations, all of these these have gone exponential. That never lasts because it can’t.

Prediction: Obamacare (officially know as PPACA, had to look that up), will begin to look like the Democrat’s Vietnam. Those who supported the legislation will need to make a quick u-turn or double down on their support, riding the increasingly unpopular, cost-overrunning quagmire into the depths of bureaucratic hell.
Source of prediction: I’m not a zombie.

Prediction: Speaking of soon-to-fail-in-its-intended-goals legislation, Dodd-Frank will have many nasty unintended consequences.
Source of prediction: It’s 8,800 pages long and still leaves lots of things to be worked out later by regulators.

Prediction: The meltdown at Fukushima will still be a problem at the end of the year.
Source of prediction: The most radioactive fish of all time (by a factor of 10) was just caught. The lovely, and glowing, Murasoi is shown at top.

Prediction: The Miami Heat will win the NBA. Oklahoma will peter out.
Source of prediction: I stopped watching the NBA a few years ago, but as I recall Miami is a good team, and no one plays pro basketball in Oklahoma.

Prediction: At this year’s Oscars, lots of pretentious, overwrought crap will get awards.
Source of prediction: Recent history, reading the nominee list, watching a trailer for Les Miz.

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3 comments

  1. Nice predictions Matt, but no one plays hockey in sunny sothern cal but that didn’t stop the mighty mighty ducks from winning it all! Go Thunder!

  2. “Obamacare … will begin to look like the Democrat’s Vietnam. ”

    Er, the Democrats already own the Vietnam War. JFK, LBJ, and Robert McNamara were all Democrats. The Democrat-controlled Congress also cut off aid to South Vietnam.

    • True enough. The Dem’s share responsibility for Vietnam. To clarify I meant the “Democrat’s Vietnam” in a generic sense. Vietnam was America’s Vietnam, the nasty quagmire that started out as a bright shining idea (stop the commies, make healthcare affordable) but became a brutal, counterproductive slog (destroy the village to save it, fix the healthcare crisis by making it more bureaucratic and expensive), and polarizing in the way that Vietnam forced proponents to either double down or abandon ship (or, in McNamara’s case, shed crocodile tears three decades after he could have done something to stop the madness).

      Yikes sorry for the rambling response, staying up late to fix a server issue will do that to you.

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